SIRD

NB: Set the argument output_image of the plotting functions to False when running the notebook to have interactive plots (some have a dropdown that allows to choose the province/region)

Basic SIRD

Stochastic and continuous with logistic Rt

Parameter estimation for logistic Rt

SIRD model fitting using least squares

Cumulative infected - Firenze

No outbreak shift

Daily infected - Firenze

No outbreak shift

Daily infected - Firenze

Outbreak shift = 10

Daily infected - Bologna

No outbreak shift

Deaths of Firenze

Skewed gaussian param estimation - Bologna

No outbreak shift

Region Piemonte

Discrete SIRD

Discrete parameter estimation using LinearRegression.

Compute parameters for each day and then predict new days

Grid search for best no. of lags and no. of days to predict

Provincial grid search for lags and days to predict

Predict during peak